According to analysis from S4labour, last week’s hospitality sales were down 1.2% on the previous week. However, the decline was driven from weak performance in London, where week on week sales slipped 9.1%. Sites outside the capital grow sales by nearly 1% on the previous week.

The number of sites that were open also declined last week. For the first two weeks since the rules were relaxed to allow outside trading, circa 55% of sites were open, however, that figure slipped to 48% last week.

63% of sites traded at greater or equal to their sales level, compared to the same week in 2019, with two thirds of sites trading at 80% or above 2019 levels.

Chief Customer Officer, Sam Wignell commented that “We would anticipate some dampening on trading in London as people leave the city over a Bank Holiday weekend, but the severity of sales decline indicates just how vulnerable the industry is to adverse weather at the moment.” “We have always known that re-opening with reduced capacity would make trade unfeasible for many. We are starting to see that, for those with limited space, re-closing is the only option for now”.

Hospitality Like-for-likes down 10.5%, with 70% of sites trading at similar or above 2019 levels.

According to analysis of more than 150 organisations that use S4labour’s workforce management software, there is little change in the number of sites that were able to open in the second week of re-opening, with 45% of sites still not trading, and those that were trading, saw like-for-likes 10.5% down compared to the same week in 2019.  Despite the decline, the distribution of sites trading at similar or above levels to the same week in 2019, has jumped from 45% in re-opening week, to 70% of sites last week. The figures should be viewed in the context comparing pre-pandemic trading conditions against significantly reduced capacity in most sites currently.

While like-for-likes were down 10.5% on the same week in 2019, the decline was almost entirely driven by a 19% fall in drink sales, sales of food were equal to 2019 levels.

Chief Customer Officer, Sam Wignell added, “We expect 70% of open sites trading at similar or above 2019 levels to be the benchmark until operators are allowed to utilise all of their capacity if the weather holds and it’s not a surprise that sales are down, with sites being so hampered by outdoor only rules”.

Hospitality sales last week were only down 7.5% compared to the highs of EOTHO levels, with drink down 2.6% and food, while no longer subsided by the government scheme was only down 11.6%.

S4labour’s Chief Product Officer, Richard Hartley, commented that, “the figures suggest enthusiasm for a first drink in the beer garden faded very slightly and so it has become even more important that sites who can only operate at a limited capacity, or are not able to trade at all, get the support they need to survive.

Hospitality like-for-like sales up 9.1% but 45% of sites remain closed resulting in total sales decline of 25%.
 
According to an analysis of more than 150 organisations that use S4labour’s workforce management software, sites that were open during the first week of a relaxation in rules, had strong sales, with like-for-likes up 9.1% compared to the same week in 2019. However, the analysis of the figures reveals a mixed and complex picture, with 45% of open sites trading at 90% or worse than 2019 of sales in same week in 2019.
 
In addition to this, 45% of hospitality sites were not open at all last week, resulting in an overall decline in hospitality sales of 25% compared to the same week in 2019.
 
Operators able to open, benefited from significant pent-up demand and weather conditions that, despite starting with a scattering of snow Monday morning, were generally dry and mild. The research suggests that the general public in England were keen to return to the beer garden for a drink, with open wet-led sites boosted by a 13.2% uplift in sales compared to the same week in 2019, while open sites that are food focused seeing an uplift of 7%.
 
Chief Product Office, Richard Hartley commented “with 45% of sites closed and only half of these sites able to trade at an equal or better level than 2019, these figures on re-opening week are far from a waving flag of success for current restrictions, rather an indicator of significant lost potential for operators.
 
S4labour’s Chief Customer Officer, Sam Wignell, added that “achieving 9.1% growth under trading restrictions that significantly reduced capacity to outside only, as well as the length of the trading day, is an indicator of what could have been for the industry. Those with outside space were able to capitalise on pent-up demand and many had a very successful week, but this will naturally dissipate as time goes on, further hitting those penalised for not having outside space.

Hospitality industry forecasts 70% of normal revenue to return when outdoor service resumes on the 12th of April.

Analysis from S4labour indicates that hospitality operators are forecasting 70% of revenue compared to the same week in 2019 (not 2020). The figure of 70% is somewhat remarkable considering that the vast majority of capacity, i.e. inside, will be unavailable. The research is also encouraging as the sector prepares to re-open with over a week left to secure even more bookings. 

The figures represent only sites that are preparing to re-open on the 12th of April and it is important to note that a large number of operators either have no outside space or not enough outdoor space to make opening feasible.

S4labour’s Chief Customer Officer Sam Wignell, commented “the figure of 70% of revenue compared with 2019 is in line with anecdotal evidence from conversations across the sector. There has been a scramble and huge investment to prepare outside spaces for the 12th of April, however, it comes with a large dose of caution as much of the pent-up demand could quickly be washed away with poor weather.” 

Alastair Scott, MD of S4labour and owner of Malvern Inns who operate 3 pubs, added “we have seen an unprecedented amount of bookings in all of our sites with customers showing a clear desire to meet up and start enjoying hospitality once more”.